Presentation given in München at Intersolar 2015
The importance for cost efficient electricity storage is highlighted if Germany’s load curve is considered to be powered by renewables (mainly wind and PV) only. The astonishing predictive power of Price Experience Curves (PEC) is demonstrated for semiconductors, flat panel displays and PV modules. Based on the historical development of Li-ion batteries it is shown how a PEC for cellular phone (Wh) and automotive (kWh) applications can be calculated and at which cumulated volume a price of $100/kWh cell price can be reached.
If this is assumed to happen in 2030 the corresponding annual growth rate for the cumulated volume would be 31% - ambitious, but reasonable if we compare this with demonstrated 41% growth for the PV industry between 2000 and 2010. Including battery assembly and financing cost we then arrive at $0.05/kWh stored electricity. This storage cost together with the LCOE for PV electricity will be able to bisect the cost per 100 km for an electric car compared with a conventional fossil driven one.